
BGonline.org Forums
Only MCG got this one right
Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 9 January 2015, at 4:43 p.m.
In Response To: Only MCG got this one right (Phil Simborg)
I remain amazed at how bad some strong players are at positions like this. All that is needed is a little math and knowing a few basic short bearoff positions.
1) Since White has a trivial money take with 3 checkers on the ace pt here, this position with 10 winning rolls rather than 6 is obviously one of the easiest money takes ever. This fact alone should convince Blue with his 41 lead that he probably should just keep the cube safely on 2 this turn.
2) If Blue still isn't convinced to roll he can take a look at White's recube point. If Blue wins with the cube on 4, he leads 81/11 and that is 87% (use NN if you can't remember). Thus White will be risking 13% ME to recube to 8 and giving Blue a point of overage. Obviously, in a dead cube last roll situation White can recube with less than 50%. If White Wins with the cube on 4 he has about 56.2% ME, if he wins with the cube on 8, he leads 2a7a for about 84.2%. Thus White risks 13% to gain 28% by recubing.
Looking at 1) and 2) no way in hell is this a recube for Blue AtS.
Should White recube after Blue's mediocre 51? Looking at 2) most probably but lets do a little math and estimate how often White wins and note that the cube on rare occasions could have a bit of value to him on the last roll if he holds it now.
After Blue's 51 White wins 10/36 immediate. 26/36 of the time Blue will fail to bear off 7/36 of the time and White will win most of those.
So lets break it down to 1296 games. White wins 360 + a large percentage of 182 more games. Lets say White wins 90% of those 182 games. Now we have White winning about a total of 522 games after Blue's mediocre 51 roll. Divide 522 by 13 and you see that White wins over 40% from there and of course has a recube AtS.
Easy problem. Clear no recube for Blue AtS, and clear recube for White after 51 assuming Blue has blundered and recubed.

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.